Southwest Stakes preview

by TCI 2 years ago

After a week off, Jon & Joel return from South Florida to unveil the first TCI Top 10 of the year, and take a quick look at the upcoming President’s Day weekend action on the Kentucky Derby prep trail, headlined by Monday’s Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn.

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top 10

Rank Name Bris Comments
1 Violence 98 Currently has the best overall Derby profile; Must return sharp in Fountain of Youth.
2 Flashback 98 Will need to run faster than his Lewis win, but the talent and connections are there.
3 Revolutionary 103 Much improved around two turns and deserves credit for overcoming adversity in Withers.
4 Oxbow 94 LeComte winner should continue to improve with distance; Risen Star will be tougher test.
5 Tiz the Truth 92 Visually loved his two-turn maiden win; Tremendous upside for the Classics.
6 Palace Malice 102 Another with a Classic pedigree that has flashed talent; We’ll learn a lot in Risen Star.
7 Verrazano 104 This year’s version of a freak, but one has to be concerned about distance limitations. 
8 Goldencents 101 Honest colt has a lot to like, but he too leaves questions about how far he’ll go.
9 Itsmyluckyday 111 Has dazzled at Gulfstream; Main worries are over his ability to maintain that form.
10 Shanghai Bobby 103 Champ is as fast & classy as any, however seems the least likely to excel at 1 ¼ miles.

Discussion

  • bruin

    I like Baffert’s Carving tomorrow at GGF. Great to have you back after a week off.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Thanks Bruin, that Tapeta surface is mighty tough to figure. It’s why I’m concerned about a legit American dirt horse ever winning the Dubai World Cup again. But I digress :) I have a hard time thinking that prep will produce any Derby contenders, and probably not even any starters with the new point system.

  • 1JoeP

    Hi Joel – Nice top 10. I recently bet the KY Derby Future Wager 1 and was glad to get 26-1 on Oxbow. I see you have him at #4. Same as my rankings. My top 4 are #1 Violence, #2 ItsmyLuckyDay, #3 Flashback #4 Oxbow. Oxbow looks to run in the Risen Star, then likely in the Louisiana Derby. I did exacta boxes with: Violence, IMLD,Flashback,Verrazano,N. Invasion,Overanalyze,Dynamic Sky. I like Dynamic Sky as a live longshot. Joel Rosario will now be his jockey. Do you think he has a legit chance to upset Verrazano in the TB Derby? If he does, would you consider him to be a serious KY Derby Contender? I got 13-1 on Violence and did some straight exactas with him, using the above named horses. I also like Revolutionary, but at 13-1 was bet down too low, I think to offer real value. I will wait for Future Pool 3 for Revolutionary and hope to get at least 15-1, he may not race until the 4-6 Wood Memorial. Overalalyze at 33-1 got no respect in the Future Pool 1 odds. That could change with a win in the Gotham. He could end up facing Revolutionary in the wood Memorial. I think Flashback could be a standout and should dispatch Goldencents in the 3-9 San Felipe. I hope to get at least 15-1 on him in Future Pool 2. ItsMy Lucky Day had a breakout race in the Holy bull, setting a track record and beating Shanghai Bobby. He has alot lof races under his belt, and the rest should do him some good, as he will wait for the 3-30 Fla Derby. I know you have concerns about him holding his form, but you have to admit that at 1 1/8 in the Fla. Derby, if he impresses then he has to be considered a serious contender for the KY Derby. I will wait for Pool 3 for ItsMy Lucky Day and Revolutionary, hoping the bettors forget about these 2.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey Joe! I have liked Dynamic Sky but it’s been frustrating waiting for him to break out. He continues to be green and must show some killer instinct in the stretch before I can view him as a serious Derby contender. That Tampa surface can be unfriendly to those that have never run over it so I’m not willing to concede that race to Verrazano, who also needs to prove he can excel around two turns, although I do believe he’ll handle 1 1/16 miles. So yes I do think DS can upset him if he can finally put it all together, which would most likely make him a formidable Derby contender.

      I agree with you about Itsmyluckyday. I struggle with him more than any, and I suppose the prevailing concerns are over stamina, form and his ability to carry his best race from Gulfstream to Churchill. It’s a gut feeling at this point. You have to love his experience, style and current form, and I do agree that if he wins the Florida Derby it has to move him up. But his pedigree doesn’t scream Classics to me, his form away from Gulfstream has been very average, and you really have to wonder about whether he’s peaked too early or not. Just too many concerns for me. Like you said, it wouldn’t shock me if he won the FL Derby and came to Louisville and trained well…which would force me to take him more seriously. But we all have a way of qualifying them and we can’t love them all :)


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