Southwest Stakes preview

by TCI 3 years ago

Jon & Joel discuss the impact of last weekend’s awesome display of racing coast to coast, and preview the final round of 10-point prep races this coming weekend with the El Camino Real (G3) and Southwest (G3). You may not believe how the TCI Top 10 changed…or did it?

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top 10

Rank Name
1 Carpe Diem
2 Texas Red
3 American Pharoah
4 Upstart
5 Dortmund
6 Daredevil
7 Frosted
8 Imperia
9 Firing Line
10 Ocean Knight


through 2/13/2015

Discussion

  • Polamalu4343

    Great job again gang! My weekly visit to the TCI! Keep it up!

    • Joel Cunningham

      Thanks Polamalu!

  • Hi Joel – Impressive win by Metaboss in the El Camino Real Derby. This horse swung very wide at the top of the stretch and really kicked it into gear, blowing by Conquest Typhoon and finishing strong through the wire. His connections have indicated that the Spiral could be next. He has 10 derby points, a strong Spiral performance would get him into the Kentucky Derby. I wonder if we could be looking at the Next Animal Kingdom. Metaboss handled the SA dirt fine in the BC Juvenile Sprint. I like it that Metaboss has now won 2 in a row at 1 1/8. He is building endurance and foundation for his Run at the Roses. Joel – You have said that CD plays kindly to Turf/Synthetic horses like Metaboss. Maybe he will like CD. Joel – What are your views of Metaboss? I’ve added Metaboss as #10 on my derby list. I will be cheering for G. Bird and Imperia next weekend.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey JoeP!

      Oddly-run race, and I think it’s very hard to make a firm judgement on that Tapeta surface when trying to find positives or negatives about Derby horses. I know the connections of Metaboss really like him, and I think he has shown some class to run well behind Bolo on grass.

      However, if I were going to take a horse from Saturday’s race, my choice would still be Cross The Line. I’m not sure how good he is, but I like the way he ran again, albeit in defeat. It turned out to be a slingshot type of race which we’ve seen plenty on that surface through the years. CTL got into some trouble and I really think he finished as well as any once he finally got a clear path and was able to level off. The race was already decided at that point, but I still like his upside on the real dirt in the future. We’ll see. Obviously, I don’t usually give much respect to this race as a Derby prep, but my takeaway from yesterday was that CTL is the horse that still intrigues me going forward. His real quality is still the concern, but he looks like he checks a lot of the boxes I look for. I believe there’s a chance he has some real quality.

  • Clint

    Looking at the southwest Joel would you prefer a
    Horse like Bold Conquest or a horse like J S Bach who might get the lead early and never look back. Thanks

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey Clint!

      I agree. I misspoke about this being a short-stretch mile because I got caught up in the history of the race, but with the move to 1 1/16 miles I think the race will be fairer to all styles.

      We shot the show on the likely field, which turned out to be correct, but it was before the draw of the race Friday. Having seen the draw, I think J S Bach will Go now having drawn the rail. He has tactical speed, and speed has been successful in this race, so I see him being ridden aggressively out of the gate and making the lead with that post draw, unless someone else is just hell-bent on making the lead then in that case I could see him sitting just behind the leader.

      My point is I think you’re correct in that the pace seems more legit now than it could have been with a different draw. War Story drawing the 11th hole helps too because it’s a short run into the first turn and I can almost guarantee Amoss will have Talamo be aggressive early to get good position heading into the first turn as to not lose a lot of ground, especially with the threat of Mr. Z and Bold Conquest both being tactical horses drawn to War Story’s immediate inside.

      So now I see Bold Conquest being more in the second flight than I do stalking a moderate/slow pace. I am more inclined to like The Truth Or Else now because I think Calvin will guide him to the rail from 5 hole after JS Bach and Bayerd get forwardly placed. Bayerd could even contest the pace depending on his Asmussen wants to play his cards. So with a legit pace and Calvin aboard The Truth Or Else, I really am giving him the longest look at finding room and winning this from off the pace.


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