Preakness probables

by TCI 2 years ago

The TCI boys discuss in depth each of the top five finishers in the Kentucky Derby, and tell you why one of those five will win next Saturday’s Preakness. They also take a look at this weekend’s Peter Pan S. and its implications on next month’s Belmont Stakes.

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top Ten with top speed rating

Rank Name Bris Comments
1 Bodemeister 107 Brilliant colt was likely best in Derby, but was too brilliant early
2 I’ll Have Another 108 Validated his quality and the strength of the California 3yos
3 Creative Cause 107 Valiant in defeat once again; Wide trip didn’t help his finish
4 Dullahan 106 Proved that dirt isn’t an obstacle; May skip Preakness for Belmont
5 Union Rags 103 Not sharp enough early in his races, and it’s gotten him in trouble
6 Went the Day Well 105 Going best of all at the wire; Only deep closer to have success
7 Hansen 105 Too keyed up before the Derby; Should run better in Preakness
8 Paynter 105 Promising colt could be a live longshot in the Preakness
9 Alpha 104 Disappointed in Derby but could strike again in Belmont
10 Liaison 101 Much improved in Derby despite a wide trip throughout

through 5/7/2012

Discussion

  • joe polander

    Joel – With Dullahan and Union Rags bypassing the Preakness and heading to the Belmont, that leaves a clear top 4. All from the KY Derby. My top 4 are. #1 IHA, #2 bodemeister, #3 Creative Cause, #4 Went The Day Well. None of the new shooters seems to me to pose a serious threat to crack the top 4. IHA overcame the #19 post to win the KY Derby, something that had not been done before. His tactical speed allowed him, along with some derby luck, to get a clean trip. CC And Went The Day Well appear to be the 2 most serious challengers to IHA. CC never runs a bad race, and Went The Day Well is improving alot very fast. Very concerned that Bodemeister may not be at his best after his blazing, almost wire to wire, effort in the derby. the above mentioned 3 that will be chasing him should get better trips and be much closer to the pace. Even IHA was about 6th or 7th leaving the gate going into the first turn. I expect him to be much closer to Bode in a stalking position. The other jockeys know that the Preakness is shorter than the Derby and you need to keep Bode in your sights or he could wire the field. But I don’t see this happening. I expect IHA ti stalk the hot pace set by Bode and Hansen, with Creative Cause not too far behing IHA. Also am expecting Went the Day Well to be much Closer when he makes that big run in the stretch. Should be a good Preakness. If IHA can take this one, and he seems to have a big Chance, then maybe a Triple Crown winner in 2012 may become a reality.

    • Ezbowln

      Which of the others have a chance fora High 5 box.

      • Joelc

        We all recall Magic Wisnor and some local longshots that have run well in the Preakness. I do not think any of the new shooters in this year’s Preakness are good enough to beat the Derby colts, but I give Tiger Walk the best shot at rallying for a minor piece at a big price on the account that he’s fresh and Pimlico is his home track. Perhaps with some luck he can even complete the Exacta, but he will most certainly have to improve quite a bit. His last breeze over the track was reportedly very good…

    • Joelc

      I agree on most counts, Joe. No question that IHA must be in a closer tracking position early with the threat of Bode getting an even easier lead in the Preakness, especially with Hansen out and the potential of no Trinniberg. I don’t see anyone else with the tactical speed to stay closer than IHA.

      I agree this is IHA’s biggest challenge in my opinion as far as winning the Triple Crown, because he’ll have a good shot and lesser competiton at the 1 1/2-mile distance of the Belmont IMO. We’ll see.

      No question the key to this Preakness will be at what point IHA’s young rider chooses to try Bode on the lead. Will it be too early? Or will it be too late?


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