Kentucky Derby 140 wrap-up

by TCI 3 months ago

Jon & Joel recap Kentucky Derby 140 from gate to wire and discuss the fortunes and misfortunes of some of the key runners. They also talk about California Chrome’s Triple Crown prospects, and who may be lining up to give him a run for his money in two weeks in the Preakness.

Watch it. Comment.

Discussion

  • JR

    Hey Joel,
    I think you should do a top 5 for the Preakness, if of course there are five running:) I’m so use to watching you and Jon, and your analysis about pace, tracks, and contenders, it just makes my day. I think you need to do that for the Belmont too.
    You may be looking forward to a break and go home to your wife, but Joel, what’s more important horses or wife :)

    I read what Gowan said about ROC on Bloodhorse I don’t know Joel, but I have a funny feeling about him, sorry, but I think he is more interested in increasing his barn than what is best for the horse IMO.All the other trainers are saying no, or we will see and let the horse tell us which is the right approach. He just seems to gun ho.
    I am not surprised about Commanding Curve waiting for the Belmont, I’m sure you’re not surprised. Bad news about Hoppertunity out for the rest of the TC.
    Look forward to hearing from you as always,
    Kind Regards,
    JR

    • Joel Cunningham

      ha! Good stuff JR :)

      Yes, we will be doing a Top 5 next week for the Preakness, as well as for the Belmont. You are correct in your statement about having 5 horses to list at this time…tough to do!

      The horse I’m interested in is Social Inclusion. Will be interesting to see how the foot bruise comes around and if it’s severe or not. They must feel like the colt has a shot a making the race at this point based on the things you hear floating around.

      The Preakness pace is shaping up to be faster than the Derby, which is odd. Bayern is all speed, SI wants to get it on early too, and Pablo Del Monte isn’t a speed ball but with Wesley Ward’s training he’s obviously quick from the gate and will be forwardly placed for sure. That’s a lot of speed for what people believe will be a shorter type of Preakness field.

      It brings closers into play. A local horse like Kid Cruz becomes quite dangerous. Hopefully the shape of this field comes about this week, and I also would like to see some depth added to it! Todd Pletcher will hold a big key depending on whether or not he starts one or multiple horses. You would think he’d try to run something in it.

      • JR

        Joel,
        It’s our friend Dr. Roman whose stat is about Storm Cat mares. Also you might want to take a sneak peek at dosage by tracks for 2014 listed on the home page. Pimlico Avg.DI 3.07 Avg. CD 0.70 then look at 2014 Preakness contenders, interesting.
        Kind Regards,
        JR

  • JR

    Joel,

    After thought, ROC out of a Storm Cat mare, = over 3,400 foals by the daughters of Storm Cat have not had one major winner past a mile and eighth on the main track. I’m sure you already knew that.

    Regards,
    JR

    • Joel Cunningham

      Interesting stat. I did not know that…Sidney’s Candy comes to mind in the 1 1/8-mile SA Derby, but not beyond that. Of course, there are not many races in America on dirt that are run past 1 1/8 miles, certainly not many G1s.

      Victory Ride herself was one of my favorites back when she was running. Great pedigree and she could really really run, however she was a one-turn mare…best around 7 furlongs. So speed is definitely more prevalent their with Storm Cat. I would not be surprised to see ROC become a better middle distance horse down the road in his career. I agree with you that he hasn’t really shown that he is a big-time contender in the Preakness at this point, but I can understand why the trainer wants to take a shot.

  • JR

    Hi Joel,
    Just checking to see whats going on with the show. I’m sure you have heard that CC coughed. The check up was positive. I think this race is CC’s to lose.
    I don’t think his post position will be a problem with Victor. Trying to figure out who I should play in the exotics. It looks like a set up like the derby, if CC breaks clean.

    Seems Bayern racing with out blinkers is Bob’s way to get him to sit off the pace what do you think? Also seems like Bayern and SI really haven’t made a consistent move forward maybe I’m wrong.

    I heard that post 1,and 2 are not what you want to be in. So GAR breaking from 2 causes me to say hummmmm. What I’m really looking forward to is you making some sense of all this.
    Kind Regards,
    JR

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey JR!

      Show was posted to Youtube earlier this afternoon but we’re just now getting around to having it posted to our website, sorry about that. It will be up shortly, of not already up by the time I post this comment.

      I don’t know how to read the CC drama, all I can tell is how he’s doing and he looks good to me. Not great, but looks very good for a horse that just ran a winning race 2 weeks ago. I do agree that it will be hard to keep him out of it in the stretch..he’s just too good. But I do believe he can be beaten, because, frankly, I believe there’s a colt who’s just as top-level as Chrome is that is also in the race.

      I agree with you that with no blinkers on Bayern he’s likely looking to stalk in here…especially having drawn inside of Social Inclusion and Pablo Del Monte. The pace on paper still looks solid, but I would not be surprised to see SI prove to be the fastest of the speed. Chrome will have to reel him in, while also holding off the closers provided that the pace is fair. That makes this race unlike any that Chrome has been in since his 5-race win streak. Formidable speed in front of him, and a gaggle of capable closers behind him..not great closers, but capable if the pace is too strong. So what I’m saying is that I believe Chrome will be in a contentious race with very dangerous speed to catch in front of him, and if it melts down then he has to fear the closers getting a slingshot set-up. Makes this a lot more challenging than people believe when they see his 3-5 ML odds.

      Thanks for the kind words JR! I have tried :) You will see my final verdict in the show…


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