Holy Bull Stakes preview

by TCI 2 years ago

Jon & Joel launch the fourth season of TCI by previewing the 3-year-old debut of early Kentucky Derby favorite Shanghai Bobby in Saturday’s Holy Bull S. (G3) at Gulfstream. Is the champ’s biggest obstacle his trip or his competition? The guys also briefly catch up on the Sham, LeComte and Smarty Jones Stakes, and tell you why some of the maiden and allowance races this time of the year are more important than ever before in the Kentucky Derby picture due to the new points system.  Watch it. Comment.

Discussion

  • bruin

    Watch out for Bern Identity in the HB

    • Joel Cunningham

      His dam Maddalena was a heck of a sprinter. I recall Pletcher/Coolmore campaigning her a handful of years back, and she was fast and bred to be such. I think Bern Identity will find his niche around one turn too if I had to guess, perhaps at some of the longer sprints around 6 1/2-7 furlongs.

  • bruin

    Not Bobby’s Lucy Day who has now run 2 very fast races in a row,

    • Joel Cunningham

      Exploded in the stretch in both. Talk about an improved colt, wow! He may have been winning at Calder despite not really liking the track…you never know. But he’s a totally different horse now than what his prior form suggests. To set a track record at a place like Gulfstream, and beat an undefeated champion (and Shangahi Bobby did fire a good race) in the process is pretty eye-opening.

  • 1JoeP

    Joel – Nice to have you and Jon back for the 2013 Triple Crown Trail! It was a very exciting Holy Bull. Shanghai Bobby was all heart, but It’sMyluckyDay stalked the pacesetter and stamped himself as a major derby contender. Here’s my current top 8. 1. Violence 2. It’sMyLuckyDay 3. Oxbow 4. Normandy Invasion 5. Goldencents 6. Dynamic Sky 7. Overanalyze 8. Flashback. It’s not like me to rank a horse that has yet to run in a stakes race, but Flashback could bolt up this list with an impressive performance in next weeks Robert Lewis on 2-2. Baffert is very high on this horse. I kind of like the new ponts system because I like to bet horses that are “in form”. Horses under this new system could develop late and get in because the points are so weighted heavily in March and April preps. I will be looking to play Pool 3 Kentucky Derby Future pool which will close on 3-24. Last year I was fortunate to have the IHA/bodemeister exacta on Derby Day. But I noticed that in pool 3 the payout was much bigger for an exacta with these 2 because both horses were about 20-1! The only question that I have about making one of these future wagers is that when you place the bet is that the odds that you will get at the time you bet it, or do you get the odds when the pool officially closes? Finally Joel – I make my bets at Thistledown Racetrack in Northeast Ohio. This year it will be Thistledown Racino, as the track will be undergoing an $88 million dollar facelift including slots. This will improve purses for the track as well as I believe save Thistledown. I am very happy at this news. I have been going there since I was a kid with my dad.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Joe, glad to be back! To answer for Derby future wager question, with the Pool 3 that is offered by Churchill Downs you DO NOT get locked in a the odds of when you place the bet, but rather get what the FINAL odds are when the Pool closes that Sunday night. I’m sure it doesnt vary dramatically, unless one of those horses were to win while the pool was open…then obviously odds would likely drop before the close of the pool.

      Joe, do you attend the Ohio Derby annually? Congrats on the face lift at Thistle! I recall how great of a race the Ohio Derby was as I was growing up when the DeBartolos owned it I believe…some big purses and great matchups! Hopefully it can get back to that one day.

      I agree with you about Flashback, I’m a fan of the horse and had been waiting for him to debut after hearing the clocker buzz and how much Baffert liked him. He didn’t disappoint, and has been working great since. I fully expect him to be the horse to beat and propel onto the Derby trail in the Bob Lewis this weekend. The question with him – and many of these 3yos – is how far will he want to go? We won’t know for now, but we should get a pretty good sign starting this weekend by the way he’s finishing and striding out in his first start around two turns. I was a fan of his full sister – ZAZU – but I personally felt that Zazu was at her best from 8-8.5 furlongs…and I don’t think her closing kick was as dynamic going 1 1/8 miles in the Oaks…she was fairly flat in the stretch that day for her standards. We’ll see about her brother!


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