Fountain of Youth & Risen Star preview

by TCI 2 years ago

Jon & Joel analyze the first pair of “Second Round” prep races Saturday, with 85 Kentucky Derby points up for grabs in each race. Can Violence come back strongly in his 3-year-old debut in Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth S. (G2)? Who will emerge out of a loaded field in Fair Grounds’ Risen Star S. (G2) to become a top contender on the Derby Trail?

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top 10

Rank Name Bris Comments
1 Violence 98 Currently has the best overall Derby profile; Must return sharp in Fountain of Youth.
2 Flashback 98 Will need to run faster than his Lewis win, but the talent and connections are there.
3 Revolutionary 103 Much improved around two turns and deserves credit for overcoming adversity in Withers.
4 Oxbow 94 LeComte winner should continue to improve with distance; Risen Star will be tougher test.
5 Tiz the Truth 92 Visually loved his two-turn maiden win; Tremendous upside for the Classics.
6 Palace Malice 102 Another with a Classic pedigree that has flashed talent; We’ll learn a lot in Risen Star.
7 Verrazano 104 This year’s version of a freak, but one has to be concerned about distance limitations. 
8 Goldencents 101 Honest colt has a lot to like, but he too leaves questions about how far he’ll go.
9 Itsmyluckyday 111 Has dazzled at Gulfstream; Main worries are over his ability to maintain that form.
10 Shanghai Bobby 103 Champ is as fast & classy as any, however seems the least likely to excel at 1 ¼ miles.

Discussion

  • 1JoeP

    Joel – I agree with you, I believe that winning one of the upcoming preps, which guarantees 50 to the winner, will get you into the KY Derby. Hoping for a strong performance from Oxbow. I got 26-1 on him in Future Pool 1 wager. I would like to see him win, or finish a game second. If he gets beat, N. Invasion looks to be his main threat. Violence should handle his competition in the Fountain of Youth. Will be nice to get him back on dirt. A horse that I will be targeting for Future Pool 2 Wager is Treasury Bill. I’m hoping he is included as one of the horses to bet on. He has the pedigree to get the 1 1/4 and on a hot pace in the San Vincente, he was widest of all the runners and finished a close 2nd to the winner, Shakin it Up, who also looks like a live prospect. What do you think of Treasury Bill? With the points system horses that have 2 races left have a better chance of getting in instead of placing all of your hopes on 1 race in late March or in April. I like it that Oxbow will run 2 more times, Treasury Bill could be headed to the Rebel.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey Joe! Treasury Bill is definitely on my radar. His look and stride make you think he’s screaming for two turns like his pedigree certainly suggests. I’m aboard that train with you and am anxious to see how he runs next time out going long.

      I also agree with you about Oxbow. He gives me the impression that he’s on the right path now in his racing career and has the upside to be Lukas’s best Derby horse perhaps since Proud Citizen. We’ll learn a ton about several horses this weekend, including Oxbow…this Risen Star field is so much deeper in talent that he’ll need to bring his “A” race to win.

      I like that he has some tactical speed, along with Palace Malice too. I’m not a fan of horses that need a set up, which is my concern about Normandy Invasion. You never know how the pace will shake out in these races with so many young horses – many of which have not established an identity yet – but most of the time it’s not fast, thus it’s hard for me to like Normandy Invasion right now. But you never know…the La-bred in the 14-hole could catch a flier out of the gate, which always makes the inside riders think they need to track closely into the first turn, and the next thing you know you look up and there’s a heated pace up front :) We’ll see Saturday!


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