Breeders’ Cup preview

by TCI 3 years ago

Jon & Joel recap the final major weekend of Breeders’ Cup prep races, and discuss how they impacted the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies divisions. They also launch new TCI Top 5s for the Mile and Dirt Mile divisions.

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top 5 Dirt Mile

Rank Name Bris
1 Goldencents 105
2 Bayern 109
3 Fed Biz 105
4 Valid 107
5 Tapiture 106


through 10/10/2014

TCI Top 5 Mile

Rank Name Bris
1 Wise Dan 103
2 Toronado (Ire) 123 Class Rating
3 Obviously (Ire) 103
4 Charm Spirit (Ire) 122 Class Rating
5 Night Of Thunder (Ire) 123 Class Rating


through 10/10/2014

Discussion

  • 1JoeP

    Hi Joel – Always enjoy your shows! Getting the BC fever, pre-entries due out soon. I agree with your top 3 in the Juvenile. What is your view of Souper Colossal and One Lucky Dane as 2 live longshots? I believe Telescope and Flintshire are 2 standouts in the BC Turf. Do you believe that Hardest Core could upset? He is facing tougher here, but he is rested and in form. I agree with your comments about Rich Tapestry. He will be finishing strong as to what will surely be a hot BC Sprint pace. 2 Horses that I like as live longshots in the Sprint are No Nay Never and Favorite Tale. What are your views of these two?

  • Joel Cunningham

    Hey Joe!

    All the heavy lifting in the books, now it’s study time. Class is the only obvious question mark with Souper Colossal, but he sure looks the part and clearly looks like he got better when he went around two turns last out, so the trip should suit well. So yes I would give him a longshot look. Same with One Lucky Dane who appears much better on real dirt. We are still learning about all of these babies right now, and they’re like all the others in terms of showing the talent, stamina, and upside. I just happen to like others more because they’ve been tested more for class to this point.

    We’re going to dive into the Turf next. I agree that the North American horses seem in trouble again this year because the Euros simply appear better. I am not a big Hardest Core fan, I personally felt that the Million this year was not as good as it’s been in years past.

    No Nay Never is an interesting colt, but I’m not so sure that he’s better on real dirt as he is on synthetic and turf. Trying dirt again is something I’m intrigued to see from him, but not necessarily in a race like the BC Sprint where he’ll face a big field of the best sprinters in the country. Tough tough task BUT I do not think this is a vintage group of sprinters this year either. I do think Favorite Tale is more interesting, but can he take the early heat and still finish? I do think he’s very talented and dangerous on his best day, but I’m not sure if he can show his best with the sort of competing speed that shows up in this race. He is one I have a close eye on though…will love to see how he looks physically and how he trains coming into the race, because i do feel like he has some maturing upside like many late-season 3yos can show this time of year.

  • Mark

    Hi Joel, what’s your thoughts on river rocks in the dirt mile? And also how do you rate secret circles chances of repeating in the sprint and beholder in the distaff? Thanks mark.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey Mark!

      River Rocks was very close to making our Top 5. While he can’t boast any classy wins, his current form is very fast and matches up well with this group. My predicament with him is twofold: (1) What exactly is his best distance? His pedigree suggests two turns should be well within his wheelhouse, however he’s been so brilliant sprinting this summer in NY that one worries about him stepping up in class to an unproven two-turn trip. (2) How well will he run off an airplane after having most of his success being led out of his stall in NY?

      With Bayern and some other speed possible for the Dirt Mile, I could not see River Rocks getting the type of trip he needs when I ran the race through my mind. However, things are fluid right now, especially in this division where some of these contenders may very well opt for other races. I will reevaluate River Rocks when we get a better sense of what the field will look like. I do very much like the horse and his potential.

      As for Secret Circle, his comeback was good and could be overlooked a little. That was a tough comeback race with Goldencents and Rich Tapestry both turning in legit top-class performances. Baffert has them cranked most of the time off a layoff, however, with SC I can only see him improving or running a similar race next out, I don’t see him regressing. So that makes him a contender. Last year’s Sprint division was very similar to this year’s…I don’t think they’re the strongest Sprints we’ve seen. Private Zone seems to be best of the speed, Secret Circle and some other are tactical which is what you want to be in this race due to the trip, and Rich Tapestry looks like a legit finisher. Big Macher has some good performances at SA this year too at this distance. Makes for a very competitive race yet again.


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