Breeders’ Cup Pre-Entries preview

by TCI 1 year ago

Jon & Joel take a first look at the 180 Pre-Entries for next week’s 15 Breeders’ Cup championship races. Now just a week away, they discuss expectations, story lines and contenders in many of the biggest races on tap.

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top 5 Mile

Rank Name Comments
1 Wise Dan Tremendous recent form earns him this ranking, and his tactical speed will make him tough to catch at SA
2 Excelebration (Ire) Won 8 straight when not facing Frankel; He and Wise Dan have both beaten Cityscape by 3L
3 Doubles Partner Hard luck sort has enough quality to surprise this field late if he gets a good pace and trip
4 Moonlight Cloud (GB) Classy filly has won 2 of her last 3 starts in G1s over boys, but does appear to prefer softer ground
5 Mr. Commons Hasn’t met expectations in 2012 but could factor late if he puts it all together on his home course

through 10/25/2012

Discussion

  • Joe Polander

    Joel – Getting closer now to my final pick for BC Saturday Card, now that the pre-entries are out. Nonios is my top pick in the Dirt Mile. He ran a good race chasing Game on Dude in his last effort. Shakleford is good, but does not appear to be in top form, and we don’t know how he will like SA track, we know Nonios likes it. I really like MizDirection’s chances in the BC Turf Sprint. Hoping she is overlooked and I can get at least 10-1. She has 2 wins in 2012 over the downhill SA course going 6 1/2 Furlongs. She has a big shot I believe. In the Juvenile, everyone is talking Power Broker and Shanghai Bobby, and rightfully so. However, I will include Title Contender on my tickets. He has a win over the track, something that Shanghai Bobby can’t say. Title Contender is lightly raced and could pull an upset, I hope he is overlooked in the betting. My #1 pick for the Turf is Shareta. This horse has run against top Euro’s and faired well. I think Shareta has a big Shot, I’m hoping all of the money goes on Point of Entry and St. Nicholas Abbey. I feel Shareta is every bit as good or even better than those two. The spring drawing 14 horses should be an amazing site to watch. My top 4 are #1 Emcee, #2 Capital Account, #3 Coil, #4 Amazombie. Looking forward to the PP draw on Monday, to clear up things a bit. I notice that I am giving greater weight on my selections to horses that have raced well on the SA track. This to me seems to be a big factor/advantage come BC day.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Looks like Nonios worked well and they are now favoring the Classic, which makes sense IMO. I think he will represent himself well there. Shack is hard to depend on at tracks he’s never raced over, but I liked his prep race and I have to believe he’ll run well going back around two turns where the early fractions will be far more favorable for his high-cruising style.

      Joe. I couldnt agree more with you about Title Contender and Shareta, although I think all Shareta fans should be concerned about the contrast in turf conditions and courses than what she’s accustomed to having success over in France. Santa Anita’s warm weather, much harder condition, the turns and shorter type of grass all will be very different for her. At least with a horse like St. Nicholas Abbey, he’s proven that he can excel in American-type turf racing, and I do think that gives him an edge over his fellow Euros.
      The Sprint is a great race. I still have not figured out in my mind how this race will unfold. I really feel as though it’s such a competitive group that the draw will be critical for this race.
      I do agree in general that the Californians have an edge having raced over the surface, in the warmer weather and not having to travel, etc.

  • Joe Polander

    Joel – Here I go again using horses that like the SA track. Groupie Doll is the one to beat in the F& M Sprint. She is a freak. However we don’t know how she will like the track. I believe that Contested, who has 2 dominating allowance wins over the SA track, could pull a big upset. Would be nice to get at least 10-2 on Contested , since Groupie Doll could be even money. This could be a solid exacta play, and a big DD, pick 3, or pick 4 , should Contested pull the shocker. I notice that you mentioned Contested in your show.

    • Joel Cunningham

      I do like Contested, Joe. If there is a home-field advantage to be had in this race then it would definitely help her chances. Her races at 7F earlier this year were very fast on any speed-figure scale, and if she can fire her “A” race then it would make her tough for Groupie Doll to catch her over that type of fast racetrack at Santa Anita IMO. Contested comes in fresh and also has room for improvement in theory since she’s only 3. Add in the Baffert factor and you simply must use her IMO.

  • Joe Polander

    Joel – Today K. Mclaughlin announced that Emcee will run in the BC Dirt MIle. I believe that this is a good move considering that the Sprint may have an amazing 14 horses in the gate. This move allows me to play Capital Account, Coil, and Amazombie in my pick 4 and pick 6. In my Pick 4 for the Dirt Mile I will be using Nonios, Emcee, Shackleford, and Jersey Town. Shaping up to be a stellar BC, PP draw only 3 days away now!

    • Joel Cunningham

      Joe, to me it’s a risky thing to try two turns in a race like this when it comes to Emcee, so I am surprised by the decision. I really believe they feel as though his best distance is 7F, and my guess is that after assessing the Sprint and Dirt Mile fields that perhaps Kiaran felt the Dirt Mile wasnt as deep as the Sprint and that’s why he chose it… both are G1s and the Sprint purse has been reduced from $2 mil to $1.5 mil so not many incentives to run in the Sprint over the Dirt Mile as there was in previous years.

      I think Emcee has the quality to be a contender in either race, but in his first road trip I hate to throw multiple new things at a horse trying to win such a big race. However, I do believe he has a big chance in the DM..just interesting to me that they are taking the more uncertain path with him.


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