Belmont Stakes preview

by TCI 2 years ago

Jon & Joel look to wrap up the Triple Crown season in style, as the dissect Saturday’s Belmont Stakes at the “Test of Champions” distance of 1 1/2 miles at Belmont. With a sizable field of 14 going to post, which 3-year-olds are set up best to handle this trying test, and which ones will not be up to the challenge? Is this shaping up as another wide-open Belmont, or can either Orb or Oxbow deliver two-thirds of this year’s Triple Crown? Watch it. Comment.

Discussion

  • joe polander

    Hi Joel – I agree with you that weather could be a factor on Belmont Day. I will be making my bets with this in mind. I agree with you that Palace Malice has the tools to win this race. Veteran Mike Smith should be able to make some early decisions with this colt and get him in a good striking position when he is asked. I like it that he drew outside of the speed of Oxbow and Freedom Child. Freedom Child does like the track and will be the likely leader, as you noted about his dosage he is suspect at 1 1/2, but should the track come up muddy, which is very possible , this gives Freedom Child a real chance to hit the board. After watching your show I have decided to add Orb back on my list. I don’t see him winning, though he has alot of class, and is back on familiar surroundings with 3 wks. rest, training well, he has to be considered a legit contender. Oxbow drew well in post 7. He is likely to be in the mix, and has the pedigree to back it up. Revolutionary and Golden Soul will do there best running late, as they did in the derby. These 2 could pick up the pieces if freedom Child and Oxbow tire. In the end, hopefully Palace Malice will be closing at the top of the stretch and will have enough left in the tank to hold off the likes of Orb, Revolutionary, and Golden Soul. I think the most likely horse to beat Palace Malice is Golden Soul, however like you said, deep closers in the Belmont really have to have things go there way to get into the winners circle. Should be an exciting race, great analysis by you Joel and Jon. Here’s my final revised top 6. #1 Palace Malice #2 Golden Soul #3 Revolutionary #4 Oxbow #5 Orb #6 Freedom Child.

  • JR

    Hi Joel,

    Great show as usual, I listened to Shug in an interview, they were talking about the weather, he said a sealed track at Churchill, is different from a sealed track at Belmont. Churchill becomes a hard surface, and the horses seem to stay on top, where as the Belmont they will make a deeper impression. Not sure how significant that is, other than perhaps it could be more tiring for some horses, which could be a factor.

    Not sure how to play this one yet, I think there is something to be said for home court advantage for Orb, If you look at baseball, and football teams they seem to do better when they are home. So if I was to expand on that thought, I might be looking at jockey’s who regularly call Belmont their home. I checked Equibase, and Rosario is in every race leading up to the Belmont, I think he will have a pretty good idea how the track is playing.

    Then we have the Lukas factor, being the only trainer in history to capture two legs of the TC with two different horses. Given that, WTC would be one to look at considering his stride, and if he could put it together, but he is no Zenyatta. Plus his dosage at 3.33 is a question, and Jon Court doesn’t ride at Belmont regularly from what I can tell. Big Red had a dosage of 3.00 and a CD of 0.90, but Big Red was on of a kind as we know.

    I find Incognito interesting as a long shot since he is by A.P. Indy and Kiaran, I believe said this would certainly be a class test. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been surprised. I never saw Ruler on Ice either. However, Incognito doesn’t like kickback on a sloppy track.

    And it seems Edgar Prado, has a reputation of bringing in the least likely, so I’m also looking at Giant Finish as a long shot, dosage is right.

    May need to put a saver bet on Rosie and Unlimited Budget, wouldn’t want to miss out on history.

    So Joel, like I said previous, it’s a crap shoot. I’ll probably narrow down by jockey, slop horses, and the unexpected. Take care my friend, enjoy the Belmont.

    Kind Regards,

    JR


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