Belmont Stakes Panel Preview

Taylor Made Stallions
by TCI 3 years ago

Jon and Joel bring back Ray Paulick and Ed DeRosa for the Belmont round of our panel discussion. Will I’ll Have Another become the 12th Triple Crown winner, or the 12th horse to be denied since 1978?

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top Five with top speed rating

Rank Name Bris Comments
1 I’ll Have Another 109 It’s his superior cardiovascular system that gives him a huge shot at history
2 Street Life 100 Longshots that are improving and can handle the track & distance are dangerous in this race
3 Paynter 107 Has tremendous upside and appears ready for the big time; Monster threat
4 Union Rags 103 Johnny V is a great fit, as laid-back colt needs a strong, aggressive ride
5 Dullahan 106 Only 1 ¾ lengths behind Derby winner with wider trip; Has become the wise-guy horse

through 6/6/2012

Discussion

  • joe polander

    Joel – Great show . Your panel picked Dullahan to win by 3 of your guests. You Picked Street Life as a live longshot to possibly win the Belmont. I must also say that I like Dullahan to win. He recently worked 4 furlongs at Belmont and his workout was the fastest of the 66 recorded, showing he likes the track. I agree with you about Street Life. His 3rd in the Peter Pan over the track was very impressive. Stretching out to 1 1/2 over a track that he likes makes him a very live longshot. Paynter should show early speed and Baffert believes his pedigree should get the 1 1/2. Union Rags loves belmont and with Johnny V. aboard, with a little bit of running room this big colt could be very dangerous. IHA is the one to beat, but as you said, going off at probably 1-1, there are 4 horses that could give him a run for the money. My top 5 are #1 Dullahan, #2 IHA, #3 Union Rags,#4 Street Life, #5 Paynter. I will be boxing these 5 in trifectas assuming that Dullahan finishes in the top 3. I will also be doing 3 Superfecta Boxes using the top 5, assuming that Dullahan and IHA will both finish in the top 4. Should be a great race and if someone does beat IHA they will have to earn it.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Joe, are you taking Dullahan at 8-5 now? Your box horses make a lot of sense! Good luck!

  • JR

     Hi Joel,
    Welcome back “Mon”, did you climb the Dunn’s River Falls?   Enjoyed the show, I have this nagging feeling about Optimizer like Ed had talked about in your previous show.  I don’t think he will win but could fill out a tri or super, I also didn’t think Ruler on Ice had a chance last year either, the Belmont is full of surprises.

    Kind Regards,
    JR

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey JR! I did see your post from last week but it was after I got back into the country :/  My wife would have killed me had I used the computer..I couldnt even carry my phone out of the room lol

      We did not get over to Dunn’s River Falls unfortunately. I would have loved to but it was a day-long trip from Negril and a pretty long drive. I heard it was fantastic though. We did a lot of things in Negril area and we never had a dull moment :)

      I agree that this race is very very difficult to handicap, and I think it’s clearly because of the looong distance that these horses will likely never run at again in their lives. Most people may not realize that the last 5 colts to win the Belmont Stakes (not counting Rags to Riches) had never even won a stakes race prior to winning the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. That confirms that class is something that really is neutralized at 1 1/2 miles. Same for the BC Marathon…no favorite has won that race since its inception and last year’s winner was something like 50-1 (Afleet Again). Distance makes this a crapshoot IMO.

      Best of luck tomorrow, JR! 

  • joe polander

    Joel – Very sorry that IHA won’t have a chance to go for the Triple Crown. He is a special horse for sure. He showed that with his grit and determination in the KY Derby and the Preakness. My top 4 now are Dullahan, Union Rags, Street Life, and Paynter. I will be betting the trifecta boxing these 4 assuming that Dullahan finishes in the top 3. I did a Superfecta Box using the above 4. The Friday night odds have Street Life at 8-1 and Paynter at 7-1. These are 2 good value horses and I hope that one of these wins on Saturday to complete a solid trifecta payout. Looks like Dullahan and Union Rags are both taking alot of action, both around 2-1. Paynter should sit close to the pace and has the breeding and the jockey to get the job done. Street Life will be flying late at a solid price and he likes the track.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Joe, I agree with every word you posted here. Unbelievably somber feeling here at Belmont…there must have been 600 people are the presser this afternoon…news blindsided us all. I’m still optimistic about tomorrow because it’s still a great race, so I’m trying to focus on the positive. But today was certainly a blow.

      Street Life probably needs pace, which he may get less of now without IHA in the race. I actually think Paynter becomes the bigger beneficiary like you mentioned. If you think Union Rags will fire at 1 1/2 miles then he should move up too with IHA out…UR did probably look better than anyone this morning handling a deep and laboring Belmont track. But after watching speed carry in the Brooklyn, and without IHA in the race, I’m likely leaning towards Paynter..even though I’m still a little concerned about his third race in 6 weeks off two top efforts…but he looks great and Baffert seems confident. I do believe he is a top horse..just a matter of if we’ll see it at 1 1/2 miles tomorrow. Good luck tomorrow, Joe!


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