Belmont Stakes Panel Discussion

by TCI 11 months ago

The TCI Boys welcome back special guest Ray Paulick for a discussion on this year’s Belmont Stakes, as well as a historical view of the final leg of the coveted-but-elusive Triple Crown. Does pedigree matter most when going 1 1/2 miles? Or does it just take the right horse and the right ride? Watch it. Comment.

Discussion

  • joe polander

    Hi Joel – Great Panel show! You have to like Ray Paulick, he is old school and brings alot of knowledge to the table. I agree with you that dosage is a major player in the Belmont. All of these horses can handle 1 1/8, but its the added distance that is the big factor. I’m glad you discussed your dosage figures for the Belmont field. I will be tossing Freedom Child and Orb. Orb ran a stellar Derby, but had no gas left in the tank in the Preakness, his class is what got him 4th. He will be no fresher this time around, and after seeing your dosage profile on him, I am willing to toss him. I believe this years Belmont will be dominated by the fresh horses that skipped the Preakness. Oxbow is the only exception. I see Oxbow stalking Freedom Child, then when that one tires, Oxbow could find himself on the lead nearing the top of the stretch. It is a long Belmont stretch and 1 1/2 is a long way to run, Oxbow could hit the board, but I don’t see him winning. My top pick is Golden Soul. I watched a video of his workout on 5-30 and he sure looked good to me. His trainer said that he was very pleased with his work and believes he will perform big on Belmont day. His dosage level is outstanding, leading you to believe that 1 1/2 will be no problem for this rested horse. The 2 strongest finishers in the Derby were Orb and Golden Soul. I believe he is the horse to beat. He should be around 8-1, a square price on a very good horse. I have added Giant Finish to my list because his dosage figure is even better than Golden Soul’s. I can see Giant Finish after 1 1/8 picking off horses iin this big field, he could hit the board at big odds. Here’s my top 6 for the Belmont Joel. #1 Golden Soul #2 Palice Malice #3 Revolutionary #4 Giant Finish #5 Oxbow #6 Overalalyze. I will put a win bet on Golden Soul. Exacta Boxes with Golden Soul and my other horses. Trifecta box assuming Golden Soul finishes in the top 3, with the other listed 5 horses. Should be an exciting Belmont Joel, Golden Soul should have a good pace to run at with Freedom Child in there probably going for the lead.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey Joe! Ray is always fun to have on the show, and you’re right when you say that he’s old-school and has seen plenty of Triple Crowns, so he does bring that sense of a historical perspective to the show that is simply lacking due to the fact that Jon and I are in our 30s :)

      While I do think factors such as class, freshness, liking the track, handling an offtrack or bias (like Ruler On Ice did a couple years ago), etc. are ALL factors you have to add to the equation to figure out this race – and any race, for that matter… I still believe at 1 1/2 miles your family will be tested immensely…like you said, 1 1/8 miles is attainable for a lot of good horses in this of age…even fewer can handle 1 1/4 miles but it’s within reach…to me, that extra 1/4 mile, especially on a big track like Belmont, really stretches the limit of today’s pedigree and really flattens out the talent of a horse trying to finish at the end of it.

      I agree Golden Soul has the pedigree. He reminds me of a poor-man’s version of Summer Bird. I am concerned that he didn’t exit the Derby well, but his breeze yesterday was very good for him. I also fear that maybe he’s a Churchill-lover…but perhaps he’s just a late-developer.

      Orb is an interesting one…to me, his pedigree is right on the fence with a 3.21 Dosage (not far from 3.00), and his Tomlinson is below average at 296, however Tomlinson has not had a lot of success in recent history predicting the Belmont, as only six of the last 11 winners had at least “Average” Tomlinsons at the distance (320 or higher). Malibu Moon is more of a brilliance sire and a concern beyond 9 or 10 furlongs in almost all cases, but Orb doesn’t look like a typical muscled-up Malibu Moon…and one of Malibu Moon’s first stakes horses was a colt by the name of Malibu Moonshine who was a multiple stakes winner around NY at marathon distances. So it’s possible for Orb. I just happen to think he’s most vulnerable at this distance, even though I agree he’s the best horse and the deserving favorite.

      Makes it fun to try and figure out! Code West is out now, I don’t think Bob liked the way he breezed the other day at CD. I sense the shipping and close races may have taken its toll on him to a degree. He did finish fast the final quarter of his allowance win at Pimlico. Palace Malice and Incognito are two longshots that intrigue me at the moment…I do think both Oxbow and Orb won’t embarrass themselves in here, but I believe both are vulnerable.

  • joe polander

    Hi Joel – I’ve tweeked my lineup a bit. My new #1 is Palice Malice. #2 Golden Soul. #3 Revolutionary. #4 Oxbow #5 Giant Finish #6 Overanalyze. I like it that Palice Malice will likely close to the pace and has a dynamite pedigree. Deep closers like Golden Soul and Revolutionary could be up against it a bit if they spot the leaders a bunch of lengths. Mid pack horses and stalkers seem to perform the best in the Belmont. I will be using Palice Malice as my key exacta and Trifecta horse with the above mentioned horses. Can’t wait for your final analysis Joel. Looks like a big and competitive field.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Smart move Joe! Ready for this draw so we can get this show on the road! I’m ready!


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