Preakness recap

Taylor Made Stallions
by TCI 2 years ago

Jon & Joel recap last Saturday’s memorable Preakness and discuss the challenges in the way of I’ll Have Another’s quest to become horse racing’s first Triple Crown winner in 33 years. What makes I’ll Have Another and his chances different than the other Triple Crown hopefuls that have fallen short since Affirmed did it back in 1978? What’s the biggest obstacle for I’ll Have Another: distance, competiton or short rest?

Watch it. Comment.

Discussion

  • joe polander

    Joel – Congrats on your Wedding! Should be a great Belmont with IHA having a legit shot to win the triple crown. Here is my top 5. #1 Dullahan – Fresh and dangerous. #2 IHA – amazing colt. my only concern is he did run very hard in both TC races to catch superstar Bodemeister. Obviously, he still has a big chance to win it. #3 Union Rags – Rested, loves Belmont. I watched the Champagne replay when he was a 2 year old and even though it was only a 1 mile race, he was full of run at the finish line. No excuses this time for Union Rags, Johnny V  has 1 1/2 miles to get him in a good position to let this big colt do his thing. He has a shot, like Dullahan at good odds. #4 Street Life – was very impressed with his fast closing 3rd in Peter Pan at Belmont. He will be double digit odds and hopefully the jockey can keep him close enough to make that big run at the top of the stretch. I remember a few years ago when closer Jazil won the Belmont. He was much closer at the start. I would like to see Street Life not be more than 10 lengths behind at any point to increase his chances of pulling a big upset. #5 – Paynter – With Mike Smith Aboard Paynter could try to be Bodemeister Jr. But the problem is that Bodemeister is a Superstar and Paynter is just a very good horse. I don’t see Paynter finishing better than 4th. Would be very surprised if he beats IHA or Dullahan or Union Rags. He beats Union Rags only if Union Rags finds a way to get a bad trip as he usually does.  Paynter has speed and could try to set some slow fractions with IHA closely stalking him, but before they hit 1 1/4 i would be very surprised to see Paynter still in first. With IHA, Union Rags, Dullahan, and probably Street Life getting to the wire before he does. Should be an exciting Belmont Joel, with the Triple Crown on the line.

    • Joelc

      Thanks Joe!

      Good stuff. I agree it will be a helluva race with the lineup we have coming into it. The distance makes it even trickier. The good thing about the Belmont is that the draw doesn’t matter as much as the first two legs IMO because of the slower pace, shorter field, big turns and fairly good run into the first turn ..which is good for me to be able to handicap early and form some opinions that won’t have to wait until the draw is completed. Some times we try to process things and come to conclusions on these races early – only to then have the draw make you go back to the drawing board a few days before the race :) That is very unlikely to be the case for me in the Belmont, so our opinions on the race shouldnt change much between now and the draw.

      Can’t wait to get back up to NY in a few weeks! It truly is one of the greatest spectacles in racing to see so much local pride fill up that goliath track for NY’s biggest day of racing. I’m practicing my vocal chords for New York, New York!

  • JR

    Hi Joel,

    If I’m not mistaken the TC races are the same dates when Big Red ran, interesting if history repeats itself with IHA. I agree with Joe regarding Dullahan and Rags, both colts have such big strides and we have seen in the past that could make all the difference heading to the wire.  Joel, what are your thoughts about Alpha, getting a piece of the action.

    Congrats also on your wedding, hope your wife loves horse racing Joel. A great place for weddings is the Cayman Islands on the beach at sunset, my home for over ten years.

    Kind Regards,

    JR

     

    • Joel Cunningham

      And yes, the wife likes horse racing and sports in general — so she’s done well tolerating my sports and racing addiction, ha!

  • Joel Cunningham

    Wow, I’m jealous JR! That’s awesome stuff. Thanks for the well-wishes. We were married in Destin, but the Caymans would have been unbelievable too! I hope to visit there some day.
     
    You are right, Secretariat turned in one of the greatest sports moments of all time on June 9th, 1973 in the Belmont. There are some other interesting comparisons between past Triple Crown winners and I’ll Have Another that we’ll get into in the next two weeks on the show.
     
    It’s very intersting you mentioned Alpha because he’s a horse that I’m especially taking a long look at. The biggest angle in the Belmont for me is trying to study pedigrees and real stamina influences to determine the ones that will “handle” 1 1/2 miles better than the others, whether that being by using Tomlinson figures, Dosage Index or whatever you prefer to use. The reality is that we do not breed horses to excel at 12 furlongs any more, and these horses will likely never run this far again unless they run in the BC Marathon :) So I do think stamina outweighs class in a race like this, which is interesting because it goes against the old addage that “class” wins the Belmont. Just doesn’t seem to be the case any more the way horses are bred these days, and we’ve seen plenty of upset winners in the Belmont in recent years to back up that theory…many of which didnt win many stakes before or after their Belmont win.

    For me, Alpha is a horse much like Stay Thirsty was a year ago. He has the best pedigree to handle the marathon trip, and he’s NY-based with a good trainer and rider combination. At this time, he does not stack up to the top 3yos — but if he handles the trip better than his rivals like his pedigree suggests he will then he’ll be right there at the end at odds that could soar around 30-1. He’s definitely a contender worth looking at in this race IMO.

    • JR

       Hi Joel,

      When I lived in Cayman, we always said “just another day in paradise” water 84 degrees, crystal clear at 100 feet, tropical fish swirling around you all the time, playing with the sting rays at sting ray city in the south sound at a  location called sand bar where the water is only 3 1/2 feet deep in the middle of the sound (another word for bay) putting squid on your fingers and having the rays  suck them off.  They would surround you and lay up on your chest, we would never pick up our feet, in case one was buried in the sand. It’s funny, if you were the first boat out on Sunday, after you laid anchor,and cut the engine  we would stand and just look off into the distance and suddenly you would see this massive gray line moving in the water toward the boat, they knew it was feeding time, and squid was their favorite. What a way to spend the day, when I show my video’s people are amazed at what they are looking at, we would just say ” ahhh just another day in paradise”

      Anyway, back to business, funny you should mention dosage, Dr. Steve Roman and I e-mail each other since I always have questions for him, he is a very kind man. Have you looked at his web page in detail it’s fascinating, with a wealth of knowledge,and in my opinion valuable tools.

      Alpha, has a CD of 0.44 which would indicate stamina.He also has dominant classicity in his dosage profile. Which, if I understand
      correctly is associated with tenacity and a will to win, and can allow
      for greater flexibility with ground surfaces and distances. Alpha’s trip
      in the derby, not good.
       
      I agree with you regarding breeding, when you go back in history the story says it all. I will of course look forward to your discussions.

      With Kind Regards,
      JR
       


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