2014 Breeders’ Cup Turf, F&M Turf, & Mile preview

by TCI 3 years ago

Jon & Joel study the possible European contingent for this year’s Breeders’ Cup, which again looks to have a stronghold in such major grass divisions as the Turf, F&M Turf, and the Wise-Dan-defected Mile. So which Euros should the American public become familiar with in the next couple of weeks?

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top 5 Turf

Rank Name Bris
1 Telescope (Ire) 126 Class Rating
2 Flintshire (GB) 123 Class Rating
3 Magician (Ire) 124 Class Rating
4 Main Sequence 108
5 Brown Panther (GB) 125 Class Rating


through 10/17/2014

TCI Top 5 Filly & Mare Turf

Rank Name Bris
1 Dank (Ire) 119 Class Rating
2 Tarfasha (Ire) 122 Class Rating
3 Tapestry (Ire) 124 Class Rating
4 Emollient 98
5 Hadaatha (Ire) 121 Class Rating


through 10/17/2014

Discussion

  • 1JoeP

    Hi Joel – Toronado does seem to be the standout in the Mile. I agree with you that Anodin is an exciting addition. I agree with you and also like Trade Storm, I feel he has a big shot in here. Finally, a horse that should get a good price is Tom’s Tribute. He will be flying under the radar with the focus being on the Euros. This is a hard knocking colt that is California based. He could get Mike Smith in the irons. What is you view of Tom’s Tribute as a live longshot? 2 wks. to go now Joel, pre-entries will be released Oct. 22.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey Joe! Sorry for the late response as I was out of pocket all weekend. I touched on my feelings about Tom’s Tribute above. I do think he’s one of the best in America, obviously likes Santa Anita, and should get the pace to close into. But to me, he’s no different than Silentio and others that should love the course, the pace, and have similar class. It just makes it tough for me to sort through these horses that have all taken turns beating each other. Maybe they take turns again on Nov. 1, but my money is going to probably go to a contender that I feel holds more of a class edge. Like you mention Joe, the Europeans are simply better at racing on grass…now, I know they’re not always accustomed to our short and firm grass, and our paces, and our left-hand flat style of racing, but in my opinion they are a lot better on par than our turf horses. So I will likely be looking for the European that appears to be physically thriving in Los Angeles before the race, and one how appears to have the mental disposition to handle all of the change in scenery and everything else that comes with the style of our racing over here.

  • mark

    Hi joel, thanks for the response to my river rocks question. Great show again I live in england and no the euro horses inside out and you have the right horses in the one spots for f+m turf and turf im so bullish about telescope in the turf I cant see him being beaten and dank big question mark against her but sir micheal stoute doesnt put horse on planes for a holiday and she will primmed to defend her crown my advice is lump on them both! As for the mile I will be backing your guys to keep it at home I cant trust toronado whats your thoughts on toms tribute and seek agains chances? Thanks again. Mark.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey Mark, thanks for the perspective from across the pond, we need more of that insight in my opinion! Much appreciated. I just don’t believe in the California milers, and it’s been a few years since I thought they’ve had a solid Mile division out there. Obviously (Ire) is the best of the group and I think he could steal if not respected, however there appears to be plenty of speed lining up to keep him honest enough early, and with Wise Dan out now you can bet this will be a good-sized field. I simple have not bought into Seek Again as much as others have…he’s a horse a lot of people will gravitate to in this spot as a wise-guy horse IMO. I don’t see it. Your horses coming over will have a much classier finishing punch IMO, and even when I look back at his Saratoga course-record win, it was not over a great field and the course was very very fast that day, hence how he set the record. But he was far from a clear winner in there…Grand Arch did flatter him some his most recent run at Keeneland against Wise Dan, but I am just not sold on the depth and quality of the North American group of milers this year. I think Kaigun is truthfully as good as any of our milers now with Wise Dan out, and he may opt to run in the Turf Sprint instead. We’ll see!

  • bruin1946

    When you say the Euros will dominate the turf races it really boils down to less than a handful from GB and a ton of Irish horses. Why does Ireland tower over all the other Euros?

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey Bruin, I cannot answer that as well as someone who lives in Europe and understands the landscape of the breeding programs over there better. But off the cuff, I know that Kildare, Ireland is regarded as the Lexington, KY of Europe for its prominence in Thoroughbred breeding. You look at the monster breeder/owner operations in Europe and most of the traditional names that stand out at you are from Ireland, like Aga Khan, Coolmore/Ballydoyle, etc. Of course, Darley and many other big names maintain a large breeding program in GB too, so it’s definitely not without merit. But you are right in that Ireland seems to produce the majority, with GB, France, and Germany seeming to follow.

  • mark

    Hi joel, thanks again for your insight. Ive got a couple of our horses (euros) to look out for osaila trained by richard hannon she is a possible for the juvenile fillies turf her form has a very strong look to it and she will love the fast ground and be tough to beat along with aiden o briens horse qualify she swerved the fillies mile at newmarket to go santa anita. Ive heard fiesolana is being aimed at the mile she won a win and your in for the f+m turf but connections are opting for the mile she is strong travelling mare with lethal turn of foot who will love the surface she has a touch of goldikova about her obviously not as good but a very smart mare! And finally war envoy for aiden o brien in the juvenile turf will take all the beating he was making big noises over here in the spring. Many thanks mark.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Mark, thank you for your contributions and insight. The juveniles are always an interesting study, and I haven’t even begun to research them until pre-entries are revealed since it’s always impossible to know what connections from overseas are intending to do with them. Obviously, our juvenile BC races (especially grass) are not big targets for the BEST Euro 2yos that look like they are going to pan out to be top 3yos next year in Europe, or the ones that are the most highly thought of. We usually get the second-string 2yos, but those are still usually above the class of America’s top grass 2yos. So it’s hard to know early in the process which 2yos will run at the BC because they don’t seem to “point” for it. Great heads up from you and much appreciated! I personally have not seen a superstar 2yo on grass thus far in America, so I will be vigorously studying the 2yo Euro colts and fillies that make the journey.

      Fiesolana is one I will have to evaluate further. I was unsure of her true Group 1 class since it appears her better races of come against mares rather than when she tackled males. However, if you are not a believer that Toronado is honest enough to get the job done, then it appears to me that her form is similar to Trade Storm’s, and if she has the dynamite turn of foot and can display that over very firm ground at SA then I would agree with you that it puts her in the mix. I completely respect the class of the Europeans on grass in every division except the Turf Sprint, simply because that race requires so much early pace it seems to suit the American style. But horses like Trade Storm have already proven that even though they go win-less against the best Euros for a long period of time, they are classy enough to come over to the States and beat our best milers, like he did in the Woodbine Mile. In my opinion, the Americans running in the Breeders’ Cup will NOT be any stronger than our performance in the Woodbine Mile this year…thus the good, in-form Euros have to be feeling mighty good about their chances without Wise Dan in the contest.

      • mark

        Hey joel, Dont get me wrong toronado is a very good horse IMO he is much better over a straight mile I dont think the tight turns at santa anita will play to his strengths. On that track I would be really concerned if he got a low draw hes going to have to be sharp at the gate and I dont think hes wants to get to far back early hes a stalker and a pouncer. When wise dan was still in the race he was worth a wager at 5/1 but he wasnt a certain runner then! Now at 5/4 im going to take him on! Ive already lost money on the race coz I already had money on wise dan at 3/1 over here which was to good to resist. On this side of the pond we get good odds on american horses last year at bc I got mucho macho man at 20/1 and secret circle at 20/1. This years bargain is shared belief for the classic im on at 12/1 I cant wait not long now!! Thanks again for your time and insight. Mark

        • Joel Cunningham

          Mark, I am jealous. First of all, you are obviously savvy on your American racing. We rated Secret Circle and Mucho Macho Man at the top of the Sprint and Classic, respectively, last year (even though I did switch to Private Zone in the Sprint after his final prep, but still has SC #2). So if you got those monster prices then it appears I need to send you money to invest for me! lol. Well done sir. Shared Belief is stealing at 12-1. He’s never lost and will be 4-5 on race day! Even though Wise Dan is out now, I know plenty of people who would have taken 3-1 without hesitation because the horse simply never loses. Keep up the good work Mark!

          • mark

            Thanks joel. I do love american racing just as much as I do over here im keen to learn how to handicap your racing better the approach is different to how we handicap over here.but the one race I want to unearth the winner of is the kentucky derby boy that race frustrates me every year lol! And the only time I get to watch live racing from california is when the breeders cup is there which is annoying I get to watch it from everywhere else in the us. Whats your opinion on the new dirt track at santa anita? Is it riding fairer or does it still heavily favour speed? Thanks and you keep up the good work cant wait for the next tci show.mark

          • Joel Cunningham

            Thank Mark, TCI started as Triple Crown Insider, and our bread and butter is follow the Kentucky Derby from January up to May (and then Preakness and Belmont after that until we shift to Breeders’ Cup), so we hope you follow along in 2015 and we’ll try to uncover that Derby winner along the way. Santa Anita will always be very fast IMO, and any time you get a tighter, harder surfaces that the horses get over the top of well, you are going to see fast times, and more over, usually that is tailor made for speed having most of the success. So you can expect that to continue next weekend IMO. Pace still dictates everything, and closers can win races with significantly contested early paces. So the trick is to find what races those will be…usually the Sprint and the Classic are full fields with plenty of early pace, for example, and I am not nearly as hesitant to bet a closer at SA in races like that where the field sizes are big and there are at least a quarter of the field that likes to be around the early pace. We will likely talk more about that when we get a better idea of the field shapes for these races, then it will be more evident which races are at the greatest risk of speed controlling them.

          • mark

            Thanks joel, I still cant get over how goldencents still won last years dirt mile! When watching the race and seeing those early fractions I said suicidal no way will he last home! And coming round the home turn he kicked again and nothing was closing I was wondering if the new surface would ride the same because I know alot of people were complaining how speed faviouring the track has been especially the last 2 breeders cup! But for me ive found it very profitable with 8 winners from 14 races last year and the same the year before. I would play the speed horses and rule out deep closers coz they had no chance IMO! So aslong as it rides the same I will have the same approach. Especially as I can get inflated odds on the dirt races over here I can afford to have atleast 2 runners in each race for me and still make nice profit! Good luck joel heres hoping for a speed bias track next week lol! Mark.

          • Joel Cunningham

            Two factors in my opinion Mark: Friday was clearly far more speed favoring than Saturday, and when Verrazano wasn’t handling the track it took away really the only good potential speed competition in the race. Goldencents was brilliant no question about it, but he caught his favorite track and a speed bias, and frankly, when Verrazano didn’t fire there was nothing else close to his class level in the race.


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