2013 Kentucky Derby – Final Preview

by TCI 2 years ago

Jon & Joel dissect the critical parts that will assuredly become keys to the eventual outcome of Kentucky Derby 139 in this fast-paced preview show, including analysis on the break, pace scenario, track condition, contenders primed for a big effort, and more. Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top 10

Rank Name Bris Comments
1 Orb 102 He’s done everything right since arriving at Churchill and looks like a natural for this race. The one to beat.
2 Verrazano 104 Has also looked tremendous for confident barn, and should get a great trip; Distance is the nagging question.
3 Revolutionary 105 Gets along well with both Calvin and the racetrack, and is one who moves up in the slop; Lack of pace a concern.
4 Oxbow 101 Drew poorly and has been inconsistent in his training, but still think his potential at the distance makes him dangerous.
5 Normandy Invasion 104 Will be this year’s wise-guy horse, but concerned about how keen and unsettled he’s been in his preparation at Churchill.
6 Goldencents 106 Likely Derby pacesetter could set manageable tempo, but must handle 1 1/4 mi. w/ Verrazano breathing down his neck.
7 Itsmyluckyday 111 Looks tremendous physically, but still can’t get past his Florida Derby loss where he had no excuses.
8 Vyjack 100 The 20-hole will surely lead to loss of ground, and his recent training hasn’t been stellar after suffering his lung infection.
9 Palace Malice 102 Live longshot has shown good energy & weight despite busy campaign; If he moves up at all w/ blinkers, watch out.
10 Mylute 105 Improving colt could get a piece of this, but is he really good enough to take down the big prize?

through 5/2/2013

Discussion

  • joe polander

    Joel – Great recap on the Derby! I was dissapointed in Oxbow’s draw, but wanted to hear what you thought of it. I see that you believe that he has enough tactical, and hopefully gate speed to get a good spot going into the first turn. I agree with you that with Oxbows tremendous pedigree for 1 1/4, that if he can carve out a decent trip, he has a legit shot at big odds. I was very happy with the way the other 5 of my horses drew. #16 Orb, #14 Verrazano, #3 Revolutionary, #5 Normandy Invasion, #2 Oxbow, #6 Mylute. this was a good draw for my contenders list Joel, and youve eased my mind in believing that Oxbow, from the #2 post, does have a legit chance, that I am going to stay with my original betting strategy on the exotics, Ex, tri, Superfecta. The only horse close to Oxbow that has good speed is #8 Goldencents, hopefully Oxbow will come charging out of the gate on Saturday and will get good inside position going into the first turn, and avoid getting shuffled back. I’d love to see an Orb/Oxbow Exacta.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Joe, best of luck Saturday in the Derby!

      I would not mind that EX one bit! I haven’t been thrilled with some of Oxbow’s gallops, but he’s had many good days too. I still must use him because I like the colt.

      Palace Malice has become my biggest price play now. He is not stellar in any way, but he checks a lot of boxes for me and seems like that rugged horse that will keep coming in earnest if he handles 1 1/4 miles like I think he should. The blinkers shouldn’t hurt, and if they can help him focus even a little bit to get better production then I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him win this.

  • JR

    Hi Joel,

    With Black Onyx a scratch, I understand Oxbow will remain in pp 2. Do you think that allows Gary a better shot of putting him in position? Joel, Uncle and I listened to your final preview, great as usual. Probably will have questions for you later.

    The rain forecast is not looking good at all. Jeff Siegel on HRTV named Rev in his #1slot because of rain and Calvin. This rain factor is the pits.

    Take Care my friend,
    Kind Regards,
    JR

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey JR! Agree Rev moves up in the slop. It’s unfortunate, but we’ve become used to it this time of year in Kentucky :/

      I do think the scratch of Black Onyx does help Oxbow and others like Rev who will be looking for room down on the inside. My chief concern with Oxbow will be if Stevens can get him to settled kindly right behind the leaders along the inside…if he gets along with the colt and conserves his energy to utilize in the right ways to try and win the race — then I think he has a puncher’s chance.

  • JR

    Hi Joel,

    Ok my friend, can you explain Golden Soul? More importantly what does this say about the points system? I’m gob-smocked over this one. We all thought this year you would need 30 points to get in, and then we had these two at 14 and 10 who would have thought. Joel, unrestricted stakes earnings at 47,000.00, he would not have made the derby. After this I think graded earning would be better. At least with the sprinters, you could figure that they would probably fade. DRF had Golden Soul at the 47,000.00, but he made 40K in the LeComte, and 40K in the LA derby, what am I missing? If he didn’t come in I would be a happy chappy right now. I had the tri’s. I even had Oxbow in one of them, I guess you and I are die hard’s. You should read what Dr. Roman said about Golden Soul.

    Real happy for Shrug, his eyes looked misty when he was speaking. Look forward to hearing from. Take Care,
    Kind Regards,
    JR

    • Joel Cunningham

      Hey JR, Golden Soul was a horse on my radar early at FG because of how easily he was winning from off the pace. But his FG stakes performances – while not terrible – made him definitely look like a cut below at this point. In the La Derby he got a similar pace/set up, yet he could not capitalize that day while Revolutionary and Mylute were close at the wire. Obviously that La Derby form held up with Rev just outfinishing Mylute again, but Golden Soul clearly improved his closing punch. I do believe he had the best trip in the Derby, saving all the ground and using a rail that had been good all day. Having said that, he still needed to improve, and he did. These 3yos can change so much this time of year and it doesn’t surprise me. The colt had looked and trained well at CD leading into the race, and he would catch your eye training. But obviously you cannot bet them all, and I frankly didn’t expect him to make the Derby field up until the final 5 or so days.

      I still like the points system. This year was hard to tell since so many top colts dropped out. There really wasn’t anyone waiting in the wings that was viable, and Pletcher never seemed interested in running Dreaming of Julia, so I’m not sure the points system had a big impact this year.

  • joe polander

    Joel – Very impressive win by Orb. The bettors got this one right. Late money came in on him to make him the 5-1 choice. Golden Soul was an impressive 2nd, but no match for the winner. Unfortunately , Golden Soul was never under consideration by me and wasn’t on any of my tickets. His late burst to get 2nd ruined an Ex. and a Tri that I would have had. I still lost a little overall, but that was Derby Day betting. I overbet on the Future Bets but fortunately cashed a hefty Win bet on Orb, Your’e and my #1 choice, at 13-1 odds in future pool 3. My derby day bets of ex, tri, SF were all demolished by Golden Soul. I did come out ahead on my Future Bets because of the Orb win at 13-1 in pool 3, but with my derby day bets aI was a little in the red overall. Next year I will play only pool 3 and Derby day bets. My mistake this year was betting pool 1 and loading up on pool 2. Horses that I bet on in exacta wagers like Treasury Bill, Titletown Five, War Academy, never even made the starting gate. If I remove Treasury Bill and Titletown Five from my Future pool wagers, then I would have come out ahead this year with the future pool 3 Win ticket on Orb. Future Pool 3 is the only way to go IMO, along with derby day bets, too many of these horses in Future Pool 1 and 2 won’t even make the derby due to injury or poor performances in their upcoming preps. I would like to see Orb win the Triple Crown, it would be great for the sport that we love. On to the preakness Joel, with all of my tickets having Orb on top in the exotics.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Great stuff Joe. I agree we could be witnessing history with Orb. Think he won with something left and not sure how good this year’s Preakness field will be. Let the fun begin!

  • JR

    Hi Joel,

    Will you and Jon be going to the Preakness and Belmont with a potential TC on the line? I have no doubt about the Belmont that Orb could win, the Preakness, I think will bring in the speedsters, with Orb’s running style which seems to be versatile how do you think he will do?

    Joel, your thoughts on Goldencents, do you think Kevin was right when he knew that it wasn’t going to be his day, he decide not to push him, leave something for another day.You know, having lived on Grand Cayman for 12 years, which is similar in size to St. Croix, islanders have a different life style, a different way of thinking. They are laid back and have a lot patience. When I listened to the interviews with Kevin, there was no question in my mind of Kevin’s mindset. I think that could be a good thing to have in these big races, not to let the pressure get to you and just methodically run your race. Just like Kevin said I need to get him to relax and get him in his stride and he would be ok.

    Joel, as always, I enjoy listening to what you have to say, you’re a wealth of information and I have learned a great deal from you. Thank you Joel for everything.

    Kind Regards,

    JR

    • Joel Cunningham

      JR, we will be following them and obviously doing a show through the entire Triple Crown, and we are definitely headed to NY for the Belmont to do some on-location coverage. The Preakness is still up in the air for us this year as far as going to Baltimore, but we haven’t ruled it out yet. I’m waiting to see what the field is shaping up to look like, as right now it appears like Orb will be a heavy favorite in what looks like a “lite” Preakness at the moment.

      I do believe Orb has the ability to track close enough in the middle stages of the race to be where he needs to be turning for home. And judging by how he came back to the winner’s circle in the Derby, he’s going to be tough right back in 2 weeks. He was far from giving the impression that he overexerted himself, and I think the tank still has plenty left in it by all early signs that I saw. They also reported that he was sharp, at the front of his stall, and ate up everything Sunday morning which is a terrific sign as to the potential affect the Derby could have had on him.

      I do think the fact that Goldencents was not allowed to run his race in the Derby could make him tough to catch in the Preakness. Goldencents also didn’t particularly have a big Wet Track number so he may not have displayed much energy at all in the Derby, and he could be fresh enough to make it tough on Orb is he can control the pace and run back to something close to that 105 Beyer in the SA Derby. Departing is another colt who has the ability to stalk and get first jump on Orb in theory…and I do think Departing has improved with Lasix as evidence of his clear Illinois Derby win. Orb still stands out over these two on class IMO, but the factors of “pace” and “fresh horse” could make those two problematic for Orb if the chips fell just right.

      JR, I always enjoy your comments. Oh, and I would love to make it to the Caymans sooner than later! Ha! Man, I envy your lifestyle greatly my friend!

      • JR

        Hi Joel,

        Island life can be great, some people get island fever,I never did. Cayman is only 26 miles long. Don’t know how much you saw of it on your honeymoon other than 7 mile beach. I came back to the states several years ago and live in Georgia now.

        Still have family and friends on island, and once you live that lifestyle, it changes you for ever, in a very positive way.

        Joel, my uncle and I were talking yesterday about Live Lively being put down. I told him when she change leads it happened.

        He just can’t understand why horses are trained to change leads he seems to think they will do that naturally when they need to.I basically understand why, it’s done but perhaps you can explain it to me how important it is that they do that. When he was a young man he use to ride the broncos in competition. So needless to say that was never a factor for him.

        Look forward to your next installment on the TC road.

        Take Care

        Kind Regards,

        JR

        • Joel Cunningham

          JR, changing leads is taught in a relatively standard way with all racehorses, but I have seen some horses that responded positively to doing it a bit unorthodox, or specifically ones that liked to remain on their left lead in the stretch.

          Obviously, they are taught to switch about 4 times in two-turn races…twice on their lefts leads to run the turns since you want to be leading with the leg that is in the steering direction, and twice down the straightaways they’ll run on their right leads. I’m sure you are aware that the purpose is for weight redistribution…kind of like a human walking from one end of the airport to the other with a suitcase…you change from your left and right hands in carrying it as to maintain a balance and prolong your ability/stamina to carry the weight the furthest (best analogy to explain it IMO). So it’s taught that way so that the riders can make horses do it routinely, which obviously will prevent them from getting tired in a race more times than not.

          • JR

            Thanks Joel,
            Will convey to uncle as they say in Georgia, you’re a peach, will never understand southerners.
            Regards,
            JR


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