Kentucky Derby 138: So, who’s gonna win?

Taylor Made Stallions
by TCI 412 days ago

The TCI Boys analyze what is shaping up to be a Derby for the Ages in this fast-paced Kentucky Derby 138 Show. Grab a mint julep and take 8 minutes to see what they have to say and who they like.

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top Ten with top speed rating

Rank Name Bris Comments
1 Union Rags 103 The horse to beat; Must get a clean trip from the inside
2 Bodemeister 106 Uber-talented, but concerned he’ll hook up with Hansen too early
3 Creative Cause 107 Checks the most boxes for us, so he’s The Pick
4 Gemologist 104 Sitting on a big one and everything has seemed to go his way
5 El Padrino 111 With a good trip and fast pace, this forgotten horse is a threat
6 Hansen 105 Fits with the best on class, but not convinced he fits at this trip
7 Dullahan 102 Has one chink in armor and it’s sizable: 0-for-3 record on dirt
8 I’ll Have Another 102 No horse has ever won from No. 19, but he’s thriving as much as any
9 Take Charge Indy 109 Can see him making an inside bid in the stretch under Calvin Bo-rail
10 Alpha 104 Smallish colt floats over the track and has stamina on his side

through 5/3/2012


- More posts: 2012 Triple Crown

Discussion

  • joe polander

    Joel and Jon: Great show and great selections. You guys have landed on my top 2. My top 5 are Creative Cause,Gemologist,Went The Day Well, Daddy Nose Best, Union Rags. The other 2 horses I like that could be a serious threat are Bodemeister and IHA. I will be playing exacta boxes using Creative Cause with my other 6. And for value payoffs I will be using Gemologist with CC,Went The Day Well, Daddy Nose Best, and IHA. I will be trying to hit the trifecta by assuming that Creative Cause will finish in the top 3 and box him with my other 6 colts. Creative Cause, Gemologist, Went the Day Well, and Daddy Nose Best all drew well. Maybe #19 Post wont be so bad for IHA. I expect him to be at least 15-1 because of this usually bad post. He has tactical speed and has the pedigree to carry him 1 1/4. Remember last year, Nehro was  19 post and finished in 2nd. But after saying this, I hope that you and Jon are right and Creative Cause and Gemologist both run big on Saturday. Great analysis as usual by the both of you.

    • Joelc

      Thanks Joe! Best of luck to you!

      UPDATE: Creative Cause reportedly has been with the vets this morning, but Harrington is saying the colt is fine and will NOT scratch. Interesting development. Certainly doesn’t make me feel good about it.

  • JR

    Hi Joel,

    What is going on with CC and Harrington and  what is the rumor. You know where there is smoke there’s fire.  Joel, looking at I’ll have another as a long shot, but concerns about Gutierrez, the derby is not a place for on the job training. Then I think of Steve Cauthern. Ed mentioned him and post position and he is not crazy about, but he said that wasn’t enough to toss him. Your thoughts on the matter.

    Kind Regards,
    JR

    • Joelc

      JR,

      It’s definitely not a secret that Creative Cause has had some issues dating back to his 2yo season, and it hasn’t bothered him. I know the vets were reviewing and working on something on his back end, but that’s all I can confirm. Mike Harrington knows his horse and has put him in the right situations as evidence of his race record to date, so I guess you just have to go on that and the fact that he knows his colt and feels good enough to run him. It certainly gives me cause for pause because he was the horse I ended up on after handicapping the race. I will definitely lessen my betting strategies as they relate to him.

      I’ve taken a stand against I’ll Have Another from the 19 post. I just think the potential loss of ground and the inexperience at jockey are big enough factors in a field that is so deep in capable contenders. He does look fabulous though and could very well make me look silly in the end. But the Derby is all about taking stands against quality contenders.

      Could be a drying out track this afternoon which would be intriguing and could play strangely. We’ll see. Happy Derby Day to all and good luck!

  • joe polander

    Joel – Concerned about Creative Cause developmet today, meeting with the Vet. Glad he wasn’t scratched. You have to believe that if he isn’t scratched before the race tomorrow that he is at least close to 100 percent. However with this being said, I am moving my #2 horse, Jon’s pick, Gemologist to my #1 spot and bumping CC to #2, hoping that he is at least close to his old self. I will have trifecta’s feaurings Gemologist now finishing in the top 3 instead of relying on CC. My other 5 that still remain to hit the board are Went The Day Well, Daddy Nose Best, Union Rags, Bodemeister, IHA. I will be watching the TVG Handicapping show tonight and will be eager to see what they have to say about CC. I know alot of experts and handicappers are really high on Union Rags, but I believe there is a real chance he will not be in the top 2 when they cross the wire.

    • Joelc

      Joe, I agree. Weather could very well play a factor. I want to see how the track is playing. If it’s fast and tight/wet then I could see a Derby like Smarty Jones and Lion Heart where the speed holds…and I think Bodemeister could play the role of Smarty Jones and Hansen could play the role of Lion Heart – a high-quality colt with a ton of speed and class that is game while not really loving the distance. Those will be my two in that sort of track condition. Good luck!

  • joe polander

    Joel – Exciting KY Derby! I’m glad that IHA was one of my big 4 for exacta picks. I had the IHA/Bodemeister Exacta. I learned my lesson from Nehro last year who almost won the KY Derby from the #19 post. Bode almost broke the Appollo curse by setting blazing fractions, it wasn’t until mid stretch that he tired. I’m glad he held on for second because dullahan was not on any om my tickets. Dullahan proved to everybody that he is a good dirt horse afterall. I was dissapointed in Gemologist who was 5th early, but faded to 15th. Union Rags never got a chance, being shuffled back early. Great run by Union Rags to get 6th. My other horses performed well. Creative Cause finished strong in 5th. Went The Day Well outran his odds at 28-1 to get 4th. My other horse that I liked, Daddy Nose Best, finished 10th, never a factor. Should be an exciting Preakness and Belmont. IHA has a legit shot at the Triple Crown because he is a big strong horse that has the Pedigree to get the Belmont Distance should he win the Preakness. However there are several top notch horses from the KY Derby who could threaten IHA in the Preakness and the Belmont. those being: Bodemeister,Dullahan,Went The Day Well,Union Rags. Derby horses coming back to the Preakness traditionally do well, surprising since its only off a 2 wk. rest. Keep the updates and inside info. coming Joel, you and John are always full of good info.

    • Joelc

      Congrats Joe! It was an exciting Derby and it ran to form as expected. Unfortunately, some of the main contenders had excuses but that happens every year. IHA is a very deserving winner, and my hope is that most of these come back for the next two Triple Crown races in what should provide a great challenge for IHA and some potential super-rivalries that could be made for our sport which could use them so badly.

      Bode indeed went too fast early. He was able to slow down somewhat after his ridiculous opening quarter, but he still went way too fast for a pacesetter at that distance. I know the track was playing well to frontrunners, but those fractions would have been fast for a sprint race.

      The agression early was likely a product of making sure he was asked for speed out of the gate to get the position in the clear that they wanted…but it may have backfired because the horse never came back to Mike Smith enough going into the first turn and in the middle stages of the race. I also felt that Smith may have asked him for everything a tad too early, but I have the benefit of hindsight and I understand he doesnt have that benefit. So I admire the performance of Bodemeister…what a brilliantly talented horse.

      But I can’t take anything away from the winner, he’s been a top horse all year, and he has the weapons of tactical speed, stamina and knowing where the wire is. The only head-scratcher for me is that the final time was not what I would have expected from this good group of horses considering how good the pace was…they came home much slower than the race went early. The Beyer fig for IHA was a very average 101 too. Perhaps the way the track was playing could have flattened a little of the closers punch late.

      Went the Day Well finished better than anybody IMO, along with Union Rags who kicked it in well despite a horrible trip. I know he had a bad start and got shuffled back early, but I still think what hurt him worse was Done Talking cutting him off going into the far turn when Julien was trying to begin a rally along the inside. It’s impossible to quantify the amount of lengths he lost there but it was significant.

      Creative Cause hushed all of the naysayers about his physical condition to run a good race. His problem is that he’s a grinder and doesn’t have a big move, he just keeps fighting to the wire…and those kinds of horses need to save all the ground they can and maintain a clean trip and good position. I still don’t know why, but Rosario had him too wide down the backstretch and around the far turn…he was about in the 6-path and the widest of all…you just cannot afford to give up that amount of ground against a field this good. I believe that cost him a much better finish.  

      The horse that won had the best trip in the entire race IMO…and did so from the 19-hole with great fortune of a clean break and run into the first turn. It will be interesting to see if IHA can validate that performance in the Preakness where a normal-sized field of 14 will likely make for a cleaner-run race for his competition too.

      Can Bodemeister run his 3rd big race in just a 5-week stretch like Zayat’s Nehro had to do a year ago? Or will he regress now?

      Can Union Rags prove that he’s truly one of the best of this class? Or will he disappoint for the fourth straight time in a Grade 1 race?

      Will Hansen show more composure in Baltimore and be more of a prominent pace factor, and in turn run a better race at a slightly shorter distance?

      Will Went the Day Well continue to improve and break through with a win in 2 weeks?

      What about Creative Cause? Is he the best horse of this group with a better trip?

      Boy, there’s a ton to think about and consider these next two weeks…should be fun!


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