2012 Breeders’ Cup selection show

by TCI 1 year ago

Breeders’ Cup weekend is here, and the TCI Boys make & define their selections in all 15 championship races in this fast-paced pick show. Who do we like and why? Give us 10 minutes of your time to find out.

Watch it. Comment.

TCI Top 5 Longshots

Rank Name Comments
1 Mr. Commons Likes the course and is good enough to be there at the wire if he gets a clean trip and puts it all together
2 Camp Victory The Turf Sprint is a mixed bag and he’s run well at this trip before; Great 2012 form includes a G1 win
3 Fast Bullet  The Sprint has longshot written all over it, and he is one of two we think has the talent to spring an upset
4 The Gold Cheongsam (Ire) Most experienced filly in the field owns 3 wins and handles firmer ground; Lasix isn’t a question
5 In Lingerie Synthetic specialist is in top form and should be able to handle this type of turf course
     

through 10/31/2012

Discussion

  • Joe Polander

    Joel – Great BC selection show! After your pick of George Vancouver in the BC Juv T, I did some research and added him to my slew of selections in that race, to try to nail the Early Pick 4. I noticed that he finished 3rd Behind Dawn Approach, and 2nd behind Reckless Abandon, in previous races, both of those horses are standout Juvenile Turf colts. I agree with your selection of Wise Dan in the Turf Mile, and Game on Dude in the Classic. I will be playing some straight exactas with Game On Dude/Nonios, and Game On Dude/Richards Kid. I’d love to get 20-1 on Nonios in the classic. He has a big shot at 2nd, he has tactical speed and likes the track. And you know Richards kid will be flying late, and he will enjoy the 1 1/4.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Joe, I could not agree more about Nonios as a great price play to be on the board. To me, the Classic is going to be a grinders race because the pace is likely to be no more than moderate, and over that track it would seem like the many closers in this race will be up against it.

      With that said, it boils down to 4 horses with the tractability to stay in contact and grind home at 1 1/4 miles in the stretch. Obviously Game On Dude and Fort Larned figure to be the most forwardly placed and both have plenty of quality go along with their pace presence. I think the other 2 are Mucho Macho Man and Nonios. To me, if that pace is moderate then it will be those 4 in the hunt late.

      As for George Vancouver, Aiden O’Brien likes the horse and says he will enjoy the firm course at Santa Anita…he’s a half to Saarland and out of that stamina-filled Phipps breeding family , so a two-turn mile should be right up his alley as long as he’s not too dwelt early, which is always my biggest concern about Euros, especially on a speed course like SA against American horses that usually possess more tactical speed.

      Best of luck!

  • Joe Polander

    Joel – Great pick by you in the Srpint, Tapizar. Wish I would have used him. I almost hit a pick 3 and early 50C pick 4. I had G. Vancouver, Mizdirection, and Groupie Doll, all I needed was to nail the Dirt Mile. I had Emcee, Shackleford, and Jersey Town, and felt good going to post time. Unfortunately Shack stumbled badly at the start, Emcee tired in the stretch, and Jersey Town was flat in the stretch. So close but so far. Looking forward to you coverage of the 2013 KY Derby.

    • Joel Cunningham

      Thanks Joe! It was another great Breeders’ Cup day and we always look forward to the next thing, which obviously the focus shifts to the 2013 Triple Crown. Shanghai Bobby is one good colt…you can just see how classy and genuine he is. But I continue to speculate how far he’ll go in terms of distance.
      Trinniberg ran great Saturday. Emcee is a one-turn horse IMO which is what I was afraid of…I feel the same way about Jersey Town. Shack’s bad luck at the break did set it up for wild outcome. That track at Santa Anita is very typey and was obviously catering to speed. It left the closers with little shot all weekend, and some of the East coast horses simply didn’t handle the footing, like Awesome Feather who strangely backed up to last on the far turn before re-rallying a little in the stretch…clearly not handling things.
      But we’ll turn the page on another fun one and look forward to doing it again in 2013! Enjoyed the chats, Joe!


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